Confidence ≠ Competence: How to Know If You’re Actually Good at Something (Or Just Think You Are)

A science-backed system to spot blind spots, silence self-doubt, and grow with clarity.

Three summers ago, I said yes to DJ a friend’s event.

I’d practiced for months and felt confident. “I’m ready for a festival,” I told another friend.

Then I hit play in front of a real crowd.

And everything crumbled.

I felt exposed, tiny, offbeat. At my next gig—an iconic Vienna club—I spiraled. The room was dancing, but I felt like a fraud.

I left thinking: I’m not cut out for this. I told myself I’d never do it again.

People said it was great. I didn’t believe them.

And honestly? That feeling hasn’t fully gone away.

Every time I step behind the decks, I wonder if I really belong there.

That feeling still shows up. Even now, behind the decks, I wonder: Am I actually good—or just faking it?

This newsletter is for that question. Because confidence doesn’t always grow with skill. In fact, sometimes the more competent we become, the more self-doubt creeps in.

Let’s unpack why that happens—and how to build a self-awareness system that keeps you growing (without the spiral).

📉 Your Confidence Doesn’t Grow in a Straight Line

We like to think confidence rises as we get better.

But the curve looks more like this:

🏔️ Peak 1: The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Confidence = high | Competence = low
You’re just getting started. You know a little, and it feels like a lot.
“This isn’t that hard.”

🕳️ Valley: Impostor Syndrome

Confidence = low | Competence = growing
You’ve learned enough to realize how much you don’t know. You see the complexity now.
“I don’t belong here.”

🏔️ Peak 2: Grounded Expertise

Confidence ≈ Competence
You’ve built experience, sought feedback, and made mistakes. Your confidence finally reflects reality.
“I know enough to ask better questions.”

You don’t move through these peaks and valleys in order.

Some people stay stuck in Peak 1. Others camp out in the Valley for years. Social science shows this varies across identities—men tend to overestimate; women and marginalized communities often underestimate.¹

So what’s the goal?

Not more confidence. Not less.

But calibrated confidence—a tight match between how skilled you are and how skilled you think you are.

🔧 3-Practices to Calibrate Confidence (Backed by Science)

Here’s the framework I wish I had earlier: three concrete practices to level up your self-awareness, shrink your blind spots, and build grounded expertise.

Think of it as a mental calibration loop.

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1. Track Your Confidence Delta

A feedback loop to catch over- or underestimation early.

The Problem: You can’t fix a mismatch you don’t see.

The Science: Metacognition—thinking about your own thinking—is key to accurate self-assessment. The smaller your “confidence delta” (gap between expectation and outcome), the faster you improve.

🛠️ Try This Now:

Create a 2-minute Confidence Journal

• Before a task, rate your confidence (1–10): How well do I expect to perform?

• After the task, rate actual outcome (or ask for feedback).

• Reflect: What did I misjudge? What patterns are emerging?

💡 Example: You estimate: “I’ll finish this report in 3 hours (confidence: 8/10).”
Reality: It takes 6 hours and lots of revision (performance: 5/10).
Pattern: “I regularly underestimate revision time.” You adjust next time.

🔁 Repeat this to sharpen your internal gauge like a compass.

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2. Train Intellectual Humility

A practice for replacing certainty with curiosity.

The Problem: Overconfidence loves certainty. Certainty closes your mind.

The Science: Intellectual humility—acknowledging the limits of your knowledge—is linked to deeper learning, better decisions, and stronger performance.

🛠️ Try This Now:

Run a 5-Minute AI Reality Check

1. Pick a belief, decision, or plan you’re overly confident about right now. (e.g., “My pitch deck is clear,” “This article intro is strong,” “The product feature makes sense.”)

2. Open ChatGPT (or another LLM) and prompt it to challenge you. Use this format:

"Act as a critical reviewer. I believe [insert belief]. Challenge this assumption from 3 different angles: missing evidence, alternative interpretations, and potential blind spots. Output as bullet points."

3. Reflect: Which point stung a little? That’s your growth edge.

4. Bonus: Follow up with a second prompt:

“Suggest 2 small experiments or questions I could ask others to test these assumptions.”

💡 Example: You’re confident your new homepage copy is clear. AI points out: “Assumes prior knowledge,” “Lacks specific benefits,” “No visual hierarchy.” You run a quick user test—and spot the same confusion. You revise.

🎯 Goal: Turn confidence into curiosity. Let AI surface your blind spots—before reality does.

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3. Seek Better Mirrors (and Learn to Trust Them)

The Problem: Your brain is a funhouse mirror. Sometimes it shrinks your skill. Sometimes it blows it up. Either way—you can’t see yourself clearly without external input.
The Science: Feedback aligns your self-view with reality faster than introspection alone. Cognitive science calls this the “Johari Window”— there are things others see about you that you don’t. And the only way to shrink that blind spot? Ask.

🛠️ Try This Now: Dare to Ask—and Believe—the Mirror

• Find a brave reviewer: Ask one person you trust to be honest:
  “What’s one thing I do well that I downplay?”
  “What’s one thing I overrate or miss?”

• Give them a prompt, not a blank page:
  “Tell me what felt confusing or off in this [draft/pitch/set].”
  Not: “Is it good?”

• Practice believing feedback—especially when it surprises you.
  If you hear it more than once, it’s probably true.

• Bonus: Review your recent praise. Highlight recurring patterns.
  These are mirrors too. Just because something feels easy doesn’t mean it isn’t valuable.

💡 Example: After DJing a packed set, someone says, “You held the crowd so well.” You’re tempted to shrug it off. Instead, you write it down. Next time you feel like a fraud, you read it back. You remind yourself: This is real too.

🎯 Goal: Build a habit of asking for (and trusting) input. The right mirrors reflect not just your flaws—but your growth. Look into them. Especially when you don’t want to.

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🔁 Reframe Impostor Syndrome as a Growth Signal

Feeling like a fraud? That’s not necessarily failure.

It can be a growth signal.

It means:

🔍 You’re stepping outside your comfort zone.
🧗 You’re on the steep part of the curve.
📈 You’re not coasting—you’re leveling up.

I’ve felt it launching my course.
Speaking at global events.
Even writing this newsletter.

I don’t see it as a red flag anymore. I see it as a sign: You’re doing something real.

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🧩 One Mental Rule to Keep Your Ego in Check

“The moment I feel certain—or incapable—is the moment I need to double-check.”

Certainty breeds blindness. Doubt breeds inquiry. Both can be useful—if you know how to use them.

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Final Thought

Calibrated confidence isn’t about being loud or humble.

It’s about being honest.

The best learners I know don’t fake certainty.
They say: “I don’t know yet. But I’m learning.”

And they mean it.

So here’s your move:
Pick one of these practices. Try it this week.
Not to prove yourself.
But to see yourself—more clearly.

Sources

Adamecz, A., Ilieva, R., Shure, N. (2025). Revisiting the DunningKruger effect: composite measures and heterogeneity by gender. GLO Discussion Paper. Global Labor Organization (GLO). https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/311183/1/GLO-DP-1566.pdf

Ehrlinger, J., Johnson, K., Banner, M., Dunning, D., & Kruger, J. (2008). Why the unskilled are unaware: Further explorations of (absent) self-insight among the incompetent. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 105(1), 98–121.

Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121–1134.

Krumrei-Mancuso, E., Haggard, M., LaBouff, J., & Rowatt, W. (2020). Links between intellectual humility and acquiring knowledge. The Journal of Positive Psychology, 15, 155 - 170. https://doi.org/10.1080/17439760.2019.1579359.

Leman, J., Kurinec, C., & Rowatt, W. (2021). Overconfident and unaware: Intellectual humility and the calibration of metacognition. The Journal of Positive Psychology, 18, 178 - 196. https://doi.org/10.1080/17439760.2021.1975155.

Lucero, K. S., & Chen, P. (2020). What Do Reinforcement and Confidence Have to Do with It? A Systematic Pathway Analysis of Knowledge, Competence, Confidence, and Intention to Change. Journal of European CME, 9(1), 1834759. https://doi.org/10.1080/21614083.2020.1834759

Muller A, Sirianni LA, Addante RJ. (2021). Neural correlates of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Eur J Neurosci. Jan;53(2):460-484. doi: 10.1111/ejn.14935. Epub 2020 Aug 28. PMID: 32761954; PMCID: PMC7920517.

Price, P. C., Holcomb, B., & Payne, M. B. (2023). Gender differences in impostor phenomenon: A meta-analytic review. Current Research in Behavioral Sciences, 7, 100155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crbeha.2024.100155

Porter, T., Schumann, K., Selmeczy, D., & Trzesniewski, K. (2020). Intellectual humility predicts mastery behaviors when learning. Learning and Individual Differences, 80, 101888. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2020.101888.

Schlösser, T., Dunning, D., Johnson, K. L., & Kruger, J. (2013). How unaware are the unskilled? Empirical tests of the “signal extraction” counterexplanation for the Dunning-Kruger effect in self-evaluation of performance. Journal of Economic Psychology, 39, 85–100.

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